Last updated: 23 October 2026 · By Analyst, Platizio Global
From Dhanteras 2016 to 22 October 2026, the S&P 500 returned the most in rupees, 19.6% a year, against 15.7% for gold and 11.5% for the Nifty 50 with dividends. Over five years gold led (23.3% a year, against 17.6% for the S&P 500), but since Dhanteras 2025 the S&P 500 has led again: +25.2%, against +8.5% for gold and −10.8% for the Nifty. On gold vs Nifty returns, gold came out ahead in all three windows.
Key takeaways
- ₹1 lakh invested on Dhanteras 2016 grew to ₹5.96 lakh in an S&P 500 fund, ₹4.28 lakh in a gold ETF and ₹2.96 lakh in the Nifty 50 by 22 October 2026, before tax.
- The rupee’s fall added about 4 percentage points a year to the S&P 500’s return: in dollars the fund returned 15.5% a year.
- Gold’s rupee price also rests on policy: India cut its import duty on gold from 15% to 6% in July 2024 and raised it back to 15% from 13 May 2026.
- Gold moved largely independently of both stock markets: over 10 years, its monthly rupee returns had a correlation of −0.01 with the Nifty and 0.10 with the S&P 500.
Gold vs Nifty returns and the S&P 500: the Dhanteras table
Dhanteras 2026 falls on Friday 6 November (Drik Panchang). Returns run from each earlier Dhanteras to the 22 October 2026 close, in rupees.
| Invested on | Gold (GOLDBEES) | S&P 500 in ₹ (SPY) | Nifty 50 TRI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dhanteras 2016 (28 Oct 2016): 10 years | +328.4% (15.7% a year) | +496.2% (19.6% a year) | +196.1% (11.5% a year) |
| Dhanteras 2021 (2 Nov 2021): 5 years | +183.1% (23.3% a year) | +124.0% (17.6% a year) | +34.4% (6.1% a year) |
| Dhanteras 2025 (17 Oct 2025 close): 1 year | +8.5% | +25.2% | −10.8% |
| ₹1 lakh from Dhanteras 2016 is now | ₹4,28,386 | ₹5,96,175 | ₹2,96,111 |
For illustration only. Total returns before tax: Nippon India ETF Gold BeES (GOLDBEES) on NSE, as gold pays no income; the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), dividends reinvested before US withholding (Yahoo Finance), at each day’s RBI/FBIL reference rate; and NSE Indices’ Nifty 50 Total Returns Index (TRI), which, unlike the ETFs, bears no costs.
Dhanteras 2025 fell on Saturday 18 October, so that window starts at Friday’s close, when gold was briefly dear (GOLDBEES ₹108.11; ₹105.14 on Monday).
Gold vs S&P 500: why both did well in rupees
Mainly because the rupee fell: the dollar rose 41.6% over the 10 years, from ₹66.8566 to ₹94.6986 (RBI/FBIL reference rates). That turned SPY’s 320.9% in dollars (15.5% a year) into 496.2% in rupees, and gold’s 218% rise in dollars (COMEX futures) into 351%; GOLDBEES, after fund costs, rose 328%. A stronger rupee would work the other way (currency risk explained).
Duty changes matter over shorter spells. The Budget of 23 July 2024 cut India’s import duty on gold to 6% from 15%, and from 13 May 2026 it returned to 15% (WGC). In the past year, that rise and the dollar’s 7.7% gain held up the rupee price: gold fell 3.6% in dollars, but GOLDBEES rose 8.5%.
How risky each was
Over the 10 years, the largest falls from a closing high were 24.4% for gold (29 January–23 March 2026), 29.6% for the S&P 500 in rupees (19 February–23 March 2020) and 38.3% for the Nifty 50 TRI (14 January–23 March 2020). Holding all three spreads risk without removing it: all three fell from 29 January to 23 March 2026.
Tax: gold ETFs vs US stocks vs Nifty ETFs
| Long-term after | Long-term tax | Short-term tax | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold ETF | 12 months | 12.5% | Slab rate |
| Physical gold | 24 months | 12.5% | Slab rate |
| Sovereign gold bond (SGB) | 12 months if sold on an exchange | 12.5%; exempt only if bought at issue and held to maturity | Slab rate |
| Nifty 50 ETF | 12 months | 12.5% above ₹1.25 lakh a year | 20% |
| US-listed ETF | 24 months | 12.5% | Slab rate |
Plus surcharge and cess. Holding periods: section 2(101) of the Income-tax Act 2025; 12.5%: section 197; fund categories and the Nifty ETF row: ICICI Prudential AMC’s 2026-27 snapshot. Gold funds of funds turn long-term after 24 months.
SGBs: no new tranche has opened since 2023-24 Series IV on 12 February 2024 (RBI); existing bonds trade on exchanges. From 1 April 2026, bonds bought on an exchange, and early redemptions, are taxable (Income Tax Department, Budget 2026 FAQs).
What it means for your US investments
- Route and cost: US shares are bought under the Liberalised Remittance Scheme (LRS), up to US$250,000 a financial year; banks collect 20% tax collected at source (TCS) on the amount above ₹10 lakh a financial year, credited against your tax (TCS on LRS explained).
- Tax: long-term only after 24 months, at 12.5% with no ₹1.25 lakh exemption (tax on US stocks); foreign holdings go in Schedule FA for each calendar year you hold them.
Sources
- NSE: Capital market bhavcopies (GOLDBEES closes, 28 October 2016 to 22 October 2026) — https://nsearchives.nseindia.com/content/cm/BhavCopy_NSE_CM_0_0_0_20261022_F_0000.csv.zip
- NSE Indices: Nifty 50 Total Returns Index (to 22 October 2026) — https://www.niftyindices.com/reports/historical-data
- Reserve Bank of India: Reference rate archive (RBI and FBIL US$ rates; FBIL’s site for 10 July 2018 to 11 April 2022) — https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/ReferenceRateArchive.aspx
- Income Tax Department: FAQs on Budget 2026, section XXXVIII, Sovereign Gold Bonds (see also Budget speech 2024-25, para 128, on the 2024 duty cut) — https://incometaxindia.gov.in/Documents/Budget2026/FAQs-Budget-2026.pdf
- Reserve Bank of India: Sovereign Gold Bond Scheme 2023-24, Series III and IV (11 December 2023) — https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/NotificationUser.aspx?Id=12569&Mode=0
- Income Tax Department: Income-tax Act 2025, section 2(101) (and section 197) — https://www.incometaxindia.gov.in/w/section-2-263
- World Gold Council: India gold market update: import tightening (22 May 2026) — https://www.gold.org/goldhub/gold-focus/2026/05/india-gold-market-update-import-tightening
- Drik Panchang: Diwali calendar 2026 (and 2021, 2025); Ministry of Ayush: Ayurveda Day FAQs (Dhanvantari Jayanti, 28 October 2016) — https://www.drikpanchang.com/diwali/diwali-puja-calendar.html?year=2026
- ICICI Prudential AMC: Snapshot of mutual funds taxation 2026-27 — https://www.icicipruamc.com/blob/knowledgecentre/tax_reckoner/Tax%20Reckoner%202026-27.pdf
- Yahoo Finance: SPY (dividend-adjusted) and COMEX gold futures daily prices (secondary) — https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history
Accounts opened through Platizio Global are held with ViewTrade International IFSC Private Limited (ViewTrade IFSC), regulated by the International Financial Services Centres Authority in GIFT City (broker-dealer IFSC/BD/2024-25/0003; Global Access Provider IFSCA/GAP/BD/2025-26/001). Platizio Services LLP operates Platizio Global as a white-labelled partner platform in association with ViewTrade. Platizio is not a broker, broker-dealer, custodian, investment adviser, portfolio manager, research analyst, or authorised dealer. Platizio does not hold securities or client money and does not provide custody services. Platizio may receive referral fees or revenue share from ViewTrade. Platizio does not give investment advice. This article is for education only. It is not investment, tax or legal advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), Nippon India ETF Gold BeES (GOLDBEES) and the other securities named are quoted for illustration only and are not recommendatory. Gold, Indian shares and US stocks and ETFs are all subject to market risk, US investments also to currency risk, and each is taxed differently. Investments in US stocks and ETFs are subject to market risk, currency risk and tax implications; past performance is not indicative of future results, and returns are not guaranteed. Prices, fees, tax rates and rules are as of 23 October 2026 and can change; check them with a chartered accountant before you act.