Last updated: 23 October 2026 · By Analyst, Platizio Global
The US election 2026 is a midterm vote for Congress on Tuesday 3 November; the first state polls close at 4:30 am IST on Wednesday 4 November. In our count, the S&P 500 rose in the 12 months after all 19 midterms since 1950, by 15.1% on average (range 1.1%–33.2%), but studies find rates, inflation and earnings mattered more than the vote.
Key takeaways
- On the ballot: 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats and 36 governorships; not the presidency.
- US markets trade normally on 3 November; results arrive after the close.
- S&P 500 price returns averaged 4.6% in midterm years (1950–2025), against 11.2% in others.
- The vote changes nothing in the LRS, TCS or Indian tax; a weaker rupee turned the S&P 500’s 11.95% dollar gain this year (to 22 October) into 17.90%.
When is the US election 2026, and what is on the ballot?
Federal law (2 U.S.C. §7) sets it for Tuesday 3 November. The vote decides control of Congress:
- House: all 435 seats (USAGov).
- Senate: 35 of 100: the 33 Class II seats (senate.gov) plus special elections in Florida and Ohio for seats filled by appointment (senate.gov).
- Governors: 36 states (Ballotpedia).
What time will US election results come in India?
US clocks go back on 1 November, so India is 10½ hours ahead of Eastern Time (ET). Poll closings (The Green Papers) in IST:
| Polls close (ET, 3 Nov) | India (Wed 4 Nov) | Where |
|---|---|---|
| 6:00 pm | 4:30 am | Parts of Indiana and Kentucky |
| 8:00 pm | 6:30 am | About 20 states, including Pennsylvania |
| 11:00 pm | 9:30 am | California, Washington |
| 12:00–1:00 am | 10:30–11:30 am | Hawaii, Alaska (Aleutians last) |
Calls can take days: in 2022, House control was called eight days after the vote (AP).
US markets trade as usual on 3 November (NYSE), 8:00 pm–2:30 am IST, before results arrive (US market timings in India).
How have US stocks done after midterm elections?
Method: the S&P 500’s price change (no dividends) from the last close on or before each Election Day to that date a year later (Yahoo Finance).
Gains followed all 19 midterms since 1950: average 15.1%, median 14.5%, from 1.1% (1986) to 33.2% (1954). The midterm year has been weaker: calendar-year price returns averaged 4.6% in the 19 midterm years of 1950–2025, against 11.2% in the other 57.
Do the published studies agree?
| Study (date) | Finding | Our check |
|---|---|---|
| Capital Group (26 January 2026) | 15.4% price return in the year after midterms since 1950, “nearly twice” other years | 15.1%; others 7.3% |
| Fidelity (12 August 2026) | Price gains in the next 12 months “95% of the time” since 1938 | 21 of 22 (1938: −5.1%) |
| J.P. Morgan (8 July 2026) | Since 1937: midterm years 9.2%, others 13.3% | 5.1% against 9.5% |
| U.S. Bank (28 September 2026) | 12.4% after 31 midterms since 1900; no statistically dependable effect | Not comparable: Dow Jones data to 1928 |
J.P. Morgan’s figures are total returns; ours are price-only. Fidelity’s 95% is often misquoted as “since 1950”.
Why history is a weak guide
Nineteen data points are few. J.P. Morgan ties the 2018 and 2022 falls to Fed rate rises, and 2002’s to the “tech wreck”; U.S. Bank finds 11 of its 31 midterm periods coincided with shocks such as inflation, rising rates, war or financial stress. No study above found a reliable way to trade elections.
What is different in 2026?
The Fed raised its policy rate by 0.25 point to 3.75%–4.00% on 16 September; its next decision is on 28 October, 11:30 pm IST (Federal Reserve). US inflation (CPI) was 3.7% a year in September, with October’s data due on 10 November (BLS).
What it means for your US investments
- Rules do not change. The Liberalised Remittance Scheme (LRS) limit stays US$250,000 a financial year, banks collect 20% tax collected at source (TCS) above ₹10 lakh a financial year, and gains on US shares held over 24 months are taxed at 12.5% plus surcharge and cess (tax guide).
- Currency counts. The RBI reference rate rose 5.31%, from ₹89.9198 to ₹94.6986 per US$ (31 December 2025 to 22 October 2026), lifting the S&P 500’s 11.95% gain to 17.90% in rupees; the effect can reverse (currency risk).
Sources
- Federal Reserve: Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement (16 September 2026) — https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics: Consumer Price Index – September 2026 (14 October 2026) — https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_10142026.htm
- US Senate: Class II – Senators Whose Terms of Service Expire in 2027 — https://www.senate.gov/senators/Class_II.htm
- NYSE: Holidays & Trading Hours (2026–2028) — https://www.nyse.com/trade/hours-calendars
- Reserve Bank of India: Reference Rate Archive (31 December 2025 and 22 October 2026) — https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/ReferenceRateArchive.aspx
- USAGov: Congressional elections and midterm elections — https://www.usa.gov/midterm-elections
- Capital Group: How US midterm elections affect the markets (Matt Miller and Chris Buchbinder, 26 January 2026) — https://www.capitalgroup.com/intermediaries/ch/en/insights/articles/how-us-midterm-elections-affect-the-markets.html
- Fidelity: The surprising truth about midterms and stocks (12 August 2026) — https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/trading-investing/the-surprising-truth-about-midterms-and-stocks
- J.P. Morgan Asset Management: How do markets perform in midterm election years? (Meera Pandit, 8 July 2026) — https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/market-updates/on-the-minds-of-investors/how-do-markets-perform-in-midterm-election-years/
- U.S. Bank: How midterm elections affect the stock market (28 September 2026) — https://www.usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/market-news/stock-market-performance-after-midterm-elections.html
- The Green Papers: 2026 Poll Closing Times, General Election (read 23 October 2026) — https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/closing.phtml?format=gc
- Yahoo Finance: S&P 500 (^GSPC) daily history, 1927–2026 (downloaded 23 October 2026) — https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/
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