Last updated: 27 October 2026 · By Analyst, Platizio Global
The US election 2026 is a midterm vote for Congress on Tuesday 3 November; the first state polls close at 4:30 am IST on Wednesday 4 November. Studies of how US stocks have moved around past midterms disagree with one another and find interest rates, inflation and company earnings mattered more than the vote. This post sets out the dates, when results reach India and what stays the same for your US investments.
Key takeaways
- On the ballot: 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats and 36 governorships; not the presidency.
- US markets trade normally on 3 November; results arrive after the close, from 4:30 am IST on 4 November, and close races can take days.
- Past election-year patterns are a weak guide: few elections, different methods, and other events driving markets at the time.
- The vote changes nothing in the LRS, TCS or Indian tax on US investments.
When is the US election 2026, and what is on the ballot?
Federal law (2 U.S.C. §7) sets it for Tuesday 3 November. The vote decides control of Congress:
- House: all 435 seats (USAGov).
- Senate: 35 of 100: the 33 Class II seats (senate.gov) plus special elections in Florida and Ohio for seats filled by appointment (senate.gov).
- Governors: 36 states (Ballotpedia).
What time will US election results come in India?
US clocks go back on 1 November, so India is 10½ hours ahead of Eastern Time (ET). Poll closings (The Green Papers) in IST:
| Polls close (ET, 3 Nov) | India (Wed 4 Nov) | Where |
|---|---|---|
| 6:00 pm | 4:30 am | Parts of Indiana and Kentucky |
| 8:00 pm | 6:30 am | About 20 states, including Pennsylvania |
| 11:00 pm | 9:30 am | California, Washington |
| 12:00–1:00 am | 10:30–11:30 am | Hawaii, Alaska (Aleutians last) |
Calls can take days: in 2022, House control was called eight days after the vote (AP).
US markets trade as usual on 3 November (NYSE), 8:00 pm–2:30 am IST, before results arrive (US market timings in India).
Do elections move US stocks?
Several firms publish studies of US stocks around midterm elections, among them Capital Group, Fidelity, J.P. Morgan and U.S. Bank. Their results differ because they start in different years, use different indices, and count dividends or leave them out. U.S. Bank’s tests (28 September 2026) found no statistically dependable effect of midterms on the market.
Why history is a weak guide
There have been only a couple of dozen midterms in the era of reliable market data, which is too few to separate the election from everything else happening at the time. J.P. Morgan ties the market falls around the 2018 and 2022 midterms to Fed rate rises, and 2002’s to the “tech wreck”; U.S. Bank finds 11 of its 31 midterm periods coincided with shocks such as inflation, rising rates, war or financial stress. No study above found a reliable way to trade elections, and a past pattern says nothing about what happens this time.
What else is happening in 2026?
The Fed raised its policy rate by 0.25 point to 3.75%–4.00% on 16 September; its next decision is on 28 October, 11:30 pm IST (Federal Reserve). US inflation (CPI) was 3.7% a year in September, with October’s data due on 10 November (BLS).
What it means for your US investments
- Rules do not change. The Liberalised Remittance Scheme (LRS) limit stays US$250,000 a financial year, banks collect 20% tax collected at source (TCS) above ₹10 lakh a financial year, and gains on US shares held over 24 months are taxed at 12.5% plus surcharge and cess (tax guide).
- Timing. Results arrive during Indian morning hours on 4 November, while US markets are shut; the next regular session opens at 8:00 pm IST that evening.
- Currency counts. Your holdings are in dollars and your goals in rupees, so the rupee’s moves add to or offset what US shares do (currency risk).
Sources10
- Federal Reserve: Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement (16 September 2026) — https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics: Consumer Price Index – September 2026 (14 October 2026) — https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_10142026.htm
- US Senate: Class II – Senators Whose Terms of Service Expire in 2027 — https://www.senate.gov/senators/Class_II.htm
- NYSE: Holidays & Trading Hours (2026–2028) — https://www.nyse.com/trade/hours-calendars
- USAGov: Congressional elections and midterm elections — https://www.usa.gov/midterm-elections
- Capital Group: How US midterm elections affect the markets (Matt Miller and Chris Buchbinder, 26 January 2026) — https://www.capitalgroup.com/intermediaries/ch/en/insights/articles/how-us-midterm-elections-affect-the-markets.html
- Fidelity: The surprising truth about midterms and stocks (12 August 2026) — https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/trading-investing/the-surprising-truth-about-midterms-and-stocks
- J.P. Morgan Asset Management: How do markets perform in midterm election years? (Meera Pandit, 8 July 2026) — https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/market-updates/on-the-minds-of-investors/how-do-markets-perform-in-midterm-election-years/
- U.S. Bank: How midterm elections affect the stock market (28 September 2026) — https://www.usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/market-news/stock-market-performance-after-midterm-elections.html
- The Green Papers: 2026 Poll Closing Times, General Election (read 23 October 2026) — https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/closing.phtml?format=gc
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